Broad-based, recurring medium-term fluctuations (oscillations: fluctuations above and below a mean value) in economic activity. The empirical recording of the sequence of ups and downs, which is associated with many problems, is very important for monetary policy. – See stock price synchronization, expectations, inappropriate, fiscal policy, business cycle, business cycle diagnosis, business cycle program, core deposits, credit cycle, crisis, crisis foreshadow, metabasis, procyclicality, rebound effect, turnaround, uncertainty, economic indicators, important, two-pillar principle, cyclicality. – Cf. ECB Annual Report 2001, pp. 56 ff., ECB Monthly Bulletin of November 2001, pp. 45 ff. (detailed presentation), ECB Monthly Bulletin of July 2002, pp. 41 ff., ECB Monthly Bulletin of July 2003, pp. 25 f., ECB Monthly Report September 2003, p. 50 (report on progress and shortcomings in data collection), ECB Monthly Report August 2009, p. 68 ff. (difficulties in collecting business cycle indicators; overviews), ECB Monthly Report September 2009, p. 60 ff. (relationship between business cycle phase and inflation; overviews; references), ECB Monthly Bulletin of November 2009, pp. 105 ff. (business cycle patterns historically and in relation to parts of the world; many overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2011, pp. 61 ff. (forecasting the business cycle in the euro area; many overviews; references); pp. 75 ff. (pattern of cycles in the euro area and the U.S.; many overviews; references); ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2012, pp. 72 ff. (cyclical signals and business cycle diagnosis; detailed overviews); Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Bulletin of November 2012, pp. 12 ff. (weight and influence of the euro area in the global economy), ECB Monthly Bulletin of April 2013, pp. 51 ff. (new reference year for indices and weights in short-term statistics), ECB Monthly Bulletin of October 2013, pp. 21 ff. (lending over the course of a business cycle; overviews).
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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
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