The ECB continuously monitors economic fluctuations in the euro area (the cyclical ups and downs of the overall economic situation and of individual sectors) in various ways, especially by means of surveys. This is usually accompanied by a short-term forecast of economic activity. As a rule, each monthly report of the ECB begins with a business cycle forecast, and the respective monthly report of the Deutsche Bundesbank also traditionally starts with an assessment of the economic situation. – See order flow, purchasing managers’ survey, survey of professional forecasters, expectations, unreasonable, profit cycle, crisis foreshadow, business cycle, short-term statistics, new passenger car registrations, order capacity index, output gap, forecast model, rebound effect, job advertisement index, turnaround, confidence indicator, two-pillar principle. – Cf. ECB Monthly Bulletin of January 2004, pp. 61 ff., ECB Monthly Bulletin of September 2004, pp. 66 ff, ECB Monthly Report of April 2008, pp. 79 ff. (textbook presentation; many overviews), ECB Monthly Report of November 2008, pp. 61 ff. (reliability of survey results in turbulent times; overviews), Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report of April 2009, pp. 31 ff. (detailed presentation; pp. 43 ff. also important mathematical approaches; many references), ECB Monthly Report of August 2009, pp. 68 ff. (difficulties in recording business cycle indicators; overviews), ECB Monthly Report of May 2011, pp. 61 ff. (forecasting the business cycle in the euro area; many overviews; references), Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report of September 2013, pp. 70 f. (problems of diagnosing the business cycle), ECB Monthly Report of July 2014, pp. 54 ff. (problem of forecasting cyclical recovery phases; overviews).
Attention: The financial encyclopedia is protected by copyright and may only be used for private purposes without express consent!
University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
E-mail address: info@ekrah.com
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Ernst_Merk
https://www.jung-stilling-gesellschaft.de/merk/
https://www.gerhardmerk.de/