Data uncertainty

With regard to monetary policy, the fact that timely and reliable data on the current economic situation are hardly available. For the ECB, this is compounded by the fact that the comparability of the data collected for each member country cannot always be guaranteed due to the different data collection techniques that still exist. Moreover, important economic variables can hardly be observed directly, but at best estimated. An example of this is the output gap, which is the deviation of actual output from potential output, i.e. output at full capacity. – See instructions, monetary, capacity utilization wheel, targeting, data, soft, fine-tuning operations, monetary policy, forward-looking, equilibrium models, dynamicstochastic, information, lagged, hurricane shocks, model uncertainty, forecasting problem, monetary, shocks, structural, thrift rule, structural uncertainty, two-pillar principle. – Cf. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Bulletin of June 2004, p. 15 et seq., ECB Monthly Bulletin of September 2010, p. 79 et seq. (partial data uncertainty also unavoidable in the real-time database).

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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
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