The influence of unusual monthly changes in the cost-of-living index as a whole or in individual subindices on the inflation rate measured annually. – The level of the inflation rate for a given period as reported in today’s statistics does not depend solely on price developments during that period. If, for example, there was a temporary sharp rise in prices in a previous period – such as the increase in the value-added tax – then the currently measured inflation rate will be lower, possibly even declining. This must also be taken into account when assessing the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. – See core inflation, substitution behavior. – For the mathematical calculation and a more precise definition, see the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin of January 2005, p. 32 ff, ECB Monthly Bulletin of January 2007, pp. 36 ff. (detailed discussion; overviews; p. 38: important statements on the after-effects of base effects or their influence on future price developments), ECB Monthly Bulletin of January 2008, pp. 43 ff. (Basic principles; breakdown of individual base effects; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of December 2008, pp. 66 ff. (role of base effects for the expected development of the HICP; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of January 2010, pp. 43 ff. (Influence of base effects on inflation in 2010), ECB Monthly Bulletin of November 2010, pp. 51 ff. (Increase in base effects; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of February 2011, pp. 52 ff. (Forecasts; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of February 2012, pp. 56 ff. (base effects since 2007; definitions; overviews, ECB Monthly Bulletin of February 2013, p. 54 ff. (updated statistics), ECB Monthly Bulletin of February 2014, p. 56 ff. (base effects and their implications; overviews).
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