Inflation forecast

At the ECB, a particular system of forward-looking estimation of possible price-increasing factors. – See baseline, survey of professional forecasters, monetary policy, forward-looking, equilibrium models, dynamic-stochastic, inflation rate, expected, forecasting problem, monetary policy, economic indicators, important, path inflation, two-pillar principle. – Cf. ECB Monthly Bulletin of December 2000, p. 54; ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2001, pp. 54 f. (model description) and p. 63 (assessment); ECB Monthly Bulletin of April 2003, p. 68 f.; ECB Monthly Bulletin of September 2003, p. 34 f., ECB Monthly Report of January 2006, pp. 36 ff. (studies of forecast quality), ECB Monthly Report of June 2006, pp. 24 ff. (forecasts from monetary variables), ECB Monthly Report of November 2006, pp. 93 f. (forecast errors in liquidity forecasts), Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report of December 2007, pp: 28 f. (basic information on uncertainties in forecasting), ECB Monthly Report of April 2010, pp. 67 ff. (basic article; many overviews and references), ECB Monthly Bulletin of November 2010, pp. 98 ff. (monetary growth and inflation; overview; references), ECB Monthly Bulletin of June 2012, pp. 77 ff. (causes of forecast errors, in-depth discussion; overviews; references), ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2013, p. 77 (basic article on the reliability of macroeconomic projections; many overviews; references).

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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
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