Forward-looking monetary policy

Central bank measures must always take account of all kinds of lags. Therefore, a central bank must never base its decisions solely on the current situation, which often earns it instant criticism. – This also means, however, that a central bank cannot react to short-term shocks, such as an increase in the prices of imported goods, and must therefore allow for a certain degree of inflation in the short run in certain circumstances. – See instructions, monetary, policy, orientation, stability-oriented, baseline, code words, data uncertainty, oil price, equilibrium models, dynamic-stochastic, hurricane shocks, inflation, catastrophe risk, cobra effect, long-lag theory, medium-term, pandemic, forecasting problem, monetary, shocks, structural, structural uncertainty, worst case scenario, two-pillar principle. – Cf. Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of June 2004, p. 15 et seq., Monthly Report of the ECB of May 2013, p. 77 (policy article on the reliability of macroeconomic projections; many overviews; references).

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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
E-mail address: info@ekrah.com
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Ernst_Merk
https://www.jung-stilling-gesellschaft.de/merk/
https://www.gerhardmerk.de/