Theil inequality factor

A popular mathematical formula used by central banks to improve forecasting quality when measuring inflation expectations. Values obtained from surveys are related to statistically obtained forecasts (data gained statistically). In this way, forecast errors (differences between the factual rate of inflation and is predicted value) can be fundamentally reduced. – See Trend forecasts. – Cf. Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of January 2001, p. 41, Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of October 2006, p. 27 (overview of forecast errors calculated in this way), Monthly Report of the ECB of November 2006, p. 93 et seq. (Forecast errors in the projection of liquidity), Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of December 2007, pp: 28 f. (Basic information on uncertainties in forecasting), Monthly Report of the ECB of November 2008, pp. 61 ff. (Reliability of survey results in turbulent times; overviews).

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