Trend forecasts (scoring models)

Forecasts of future economic developments made by banks and research institutes. – As has been shown repeatedly, such forecasts are only of limited use. This is because changes in the economic and political environment, exogenous shocks and wars, natural catastrophes, terrorist attacks as well as structural breaks and cyclical influences generally lead to potential growth being undercut or exceeded in individual years. – Today, one usually limits oneself to so-called “mega trends”, such as, on the demand side, the age dependency ratio, health consciousness, wellness striving, experience and leisure orientation, environmental awareness and mobility, and, on the supply side, above all international interdependence and competition (globalization), deregulation of the markets, tertiarization and the spread of new communication technologies. – See astro forecast, baseline, data uncertainty, survey of professional forecasters, monetary policy, forward-looking, equilibrium models, dynamic-stochastic, forecast uncertainty, seasonal adjustment, shocks, structural, sentiment indicators, Theil disequilibrium coefficient, growth forecast, economic indicators, important, worst case scenario. – Cf. ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2013, p. 77 (policy article on the reliability of macroeconomic projections; many overviews; references), Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Bulletin of September 2013, p. 74 f. (problems in mapping forecast uncertainties).

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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
E-mail address: info@ekrah.com
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https://www.jung-stilling-gesellschaft.de/merk/
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