Unless otherwise defined, the view that Germany should leave EMU and – either return to its old currency, namely the German mark that circulated until 2002 – or introduce its own money together with the Netherlands and Austria; the proposed name for this is Neuro; others would like to see the designation Mark returned. – While this demand was initially advocated by only a few, from around 2010 onward the number of people advocating leaving EMU increased. Even serious experts switched over to the camp of the return movement. This is because it will be impossible for the deficit states in EMU to reduce their debts, mainly because of constitutional article one. On top of that, new national debts will probably be accumulated there every year because of the lack of competitiveness of the national economies. In the end, the political pressure for a bail-out will increase on the part of the stability-conscious EMU participants. – In view of this, however, it is ultimately a matter of weighing whether the one-time loss to be booked as a result of the exit from EMU is not smaller than everlasting and, because of moral hazard, probably progressively increasing payments in a transfer union. If this calculation turns out to be in favor of the exit, then forces will prevail to push through the exit from EMU. In the Netherlands and Austria, too, the voices in favor of an exit increased from 2010 onward. – For Germany, an exit would undoubtedly have negative consequences. The neuro or the mark would appreciate sharply; exports would fall by well over half; high unemployment would be the result. – See devaluation, fiscal, exit, bail-out, blame game, European Monetary Union, fundamental error, European Treasury, Europhobia, Europayer, EMU blow-up, ECB sin-fall, monetary trust, gold sacrifice, hegemon, mild, Plan C, bailout Europeans, bailout routine, solidarity, financial, sovereign debt repatriation, Stability and Growth Pact, TARGETabuse, asset levy, treaty fidelity, monetary union 2, economic patriotism, two-way option.
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