It is undisputed today that every business cycle is something unique; more precisely: that – it contains triggering causes for the upswing as well as for the downswing, – which at least in the corresponding form and composition did not exist before. – This makes it difficult for economic policy in general, and also for the central bank, to use measures to dampen cyclical waves precisely. Particular difficulties arise when a cyclical crisis coincides with a financial crisis, as in the case of the financial crisis that followed the subprime crisis. – See Forecasting problem, monetary policy, Stress test, Reservations, Growth forecast, Trend forecasts, Cyclicality. – Cf. Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of June 2010, p, 29 et seq. (in-depth discussion of the forecasting problems; overviews; references), Monthly Report of the ECB of May 2013, p. 77 (policy article on the reliability of macroeconomic projections; many overviews; references).
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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
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