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Prof. Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.

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Early crisis warning system

A program jointly developed by the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Forum in response to the subprime crisis and the subsequent financial crisis, with the aim of detecting deficiencies in the financial markets in good time (to detect in an early stage) and thus prevent a (major) collapse. – Skeptics pointed out that – historically, crises have always changed their nature; the cause was mostly first deficits in the balance of payments; then in the current account, but in the case of the subprime crisis also banking-related reasons, namely mainly the securitization of subprime loans, and – it should therefore hardly be possible to accurately identify future undesirable developments in advance. – In contrast, it seems empirically certain that excessive credit creation (measured by the deviation of the global credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend level) can prove to be a useful early warning indicator. – See Elisabeth question, expectations, inadequate, early warning systems, business cycle diagnosis, crisis foreshadowing, economic crisis – Cf. ECB Monthly Bulletin of November 2010, pp. 85 et seq. (early warning indicators set out), ECB Monthly Bulletin of July 2011, pp. 91 et seq. (EU framework for crisis management in the financial sector).

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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
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