Oil price (crude oil price)
The price of crude oil will tend to rise in view of: – the long-term increase in global demand, especially in China, Brazil and India, coupled with inelastic supply; – the technically limited scope for energy conservation; – the limited prospect of the economic use of alternative energy sources in the foreseeable future; and – the geopolitical risks relating to production and transport. However, a high oil price is associated with a loss of purchasing power among private households. It also weighs on the profitability of companies and restricts their spending on investment. – On the other hand, a high oil price inevitably leads to – the use of substitutes to petroleum, such as nuclear energy, coal, biogas, geothermal energy, wind power or solar energy, and – more economical use of a given amount of crude oil, such as through effective utilization of petroleum in combustion plants and better thermal insulation in buildings. – See biofuels, petroleum inflation, petroleum price, gas price, wage, indexed, wage-price spiral, Oil Bulletin, oil price equalization, oil price shocks, shocks, structural, electricity price, second-round effects. – Cf. the level of oil prices shown in the annex “Euro area statistics,” section “Prices, output, demand and labor markets” in the respective ECB Monthly Bulletin, ECB Monthly Bulletin of March 2010, pp. 16 f. (oil market 2000-2009; overviews), BaFin Annual Report 2009, p. 45 (no evidence of financial investors influencing oil prices), ECB Monthly Bulletin of August 2010, pp. 81 ff (detailed exposition of the importance of oil prices for the euro area economy; many overviews; forecasts), ECB Monthly Bulletin of February 2011, p. 95 ff (essay with basic expositions and recent findings; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of May 2013, p. 83 ff (basic information on the reliability of oil price forecasts; overviews; references).
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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol.
E-mail address: info@ekrah.com
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Ernst_Merk
https://www.jung-stilling-gesellschaft.de/merk/
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