# forecasting error zone

- Canonical URL: https://www.gerhardmerk.de/forecasting-error-zone
- Post ID: 593140
- Modified: 2023-07-25T21:00:42+00:00
- Language: en

## Definition

It is undisputed today that every business cycle is something unique; more precisely: that - it contains triggering causes for the upswing as well as for the downswing, - which at least in the corresponding form and composition did not exist before. - This makes it difficult for economic policy in general, and also for the central bank, to use measures to dampen cyclical waves precisely. Particular difficulties arise when a cyclical crisis coincides with a financial crisis, as in the case of the financial crisis that followed the subprime crisis. - See Forecasting problem, monetary policy, Stress test, Reservations, Growth forecast, Trend forecasts, Cyclicality. - Cf. Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank of June 2010, p, 29 et seq. (in-depth discussion of the forecasting problems; overviews; references), Monthly Report of the ECB of May 2013, p. 77 (policy article on the reliability of macroeconomic projections; many overviews; references). Attention: The financial encyclopedia is protected by copyright and may only be used for private purposes without express consent! University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec. Professor Dr. Eckehard Krah, Dipl.rer.pol. E-mail address: info@ekrah.com https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Ernst_Merk https://www.jung-stilling-gesellschaft.de/merk/ https://www.gerhardmerk.de/

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